Oaklawn Park Handicapping Info 2021-22
Say Oaklawn's par time for 6 Furlongs Claiming $10k for Filly/mare statebreds is 1:10 flat and your adjustments (example, not the REAL #ers) are 3.5 for f/m and 0.5 for statebreds
Do I add the adjustments to the Par Time or the Actual Time I am computing to get a figure for?
And is it better to use class specific times or the $10k times? — Conley
If you want to know what the PAR FOR THE RACE would be, then:
1. Start with the CLASS PAR for the level (i.e. the par number like 103.4 or whatever)
2. Subtract the Female adj.
3. Subtract the statebred adjustment.
(Don't forget the N2L adjustment if applicable)
This number becomes PAR NUMBER for the race.
However, as I explained in Percentages & Probabilities
, a more powerful approach is to look at the mix of horses in the race and build a STRENGTH RATING for the actual race and use that.
This way, the level of the race is determined by the actual HORSES rather than the WRITTEN CONDITIONS of the race.