Comments

  • Suggested Aqu plays 2022
    Sorry for my absence guys. I'm back in action!

    Last wager= +$14.40
    Total wagered- $28
    Total Collected- $68.40
    Profit/Loss- +40.40
    Flat bet P/L= +40.40

    Aqu for 1-22
    Race 1- $6 DD 1 with 2
    $2 DD 2-3-5 with 2

    Race 2- $4 DD 2 with 1-2
    $2 DD 2 with 5-6
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Vulnerable fav Aqu 1-22-2022

    Race 1- Laochi (2-1)- One of 4 with competitive figs. She's had her share of opportunities. Avoid at low odds.
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Vulnerable fav for Aqu 1-21-2022

    Race 6- Steam Engine (3-1)- seldom headed early but may not be in career form, 1st time Altras scares me but will only inflate the price on others.
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Vulnerable fav for Aqu 1-20-2022

    Race 2- Prince James (8-5)- falls into a group of 4 that have identical performance figs. Can't take him against others that will offer way more value
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Summary through 1-16-2022
    I added a column listing the win prices of winners in those races. In races where we selected a vulnerable fav the average win price of the winning horse was slightly over
    12-1
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (13K)
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Hey guys- thanks so much for the prayers and well wishes. My son, while only 31 led an amazing life in the horse business while competing and traveling the world. I was so fortunate to get to spend the last 18 months of his life with on a daily basis. God is good
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Vulnerable M/L fav for Aqu 1-16-2002

    Racr 2- Boss Cara (2-1)- has earned only an average Performance fig today and looks no better than 3rd or 4th best in here. Good opportunity to slant the odds in your favor betting against her
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites


    Thanks William. Sorry a been absent the past week but I had a family tragedy that kept me occupied. I hope to be back in full gear very soon.
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Vulnerable M/L favs at Aqu on 1-14-2022

    Race 5- Entry of Storm Shooter and Deep Cover (1-1)- I didn't rate either part of this entry in my top 3 so we have to look elsewhere at the low odds. This race is part of both the early and late P5. Good luck
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Vulnerable fav at Aqu1-13-2022

    Race 2- Shalimar Gardens (1-5)- holds a significant advantage off projected figs but is best to avoid at anything near his M/L odds. We can find value on others in here.
    Race 9- Dr Levy (1-1)- takes a steep class drop for Todd Pletcher. I feel it's a bit fishy after his strong debut only 2 back. Can't take as prohibited favorite
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Vulnerable fav at Aqu for 1-9-2022

    Race 3- Boom Boom Kaboom (3-1)- very consistent maiden that is now 0 for 20. Best to avoid as fav
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Vulnerable fav at Aqu for 1-8-2022

    Race 8- Lobsta (8-5)- beat his main rival last out in a hard fought stretch run. I see a bounce fir this one
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Vulnerable fav at Aqu for 1-6-2022.

    Race 8- Sweet Lies (2-1)- has not shown much early lick thus far which was against the bias last week. Marginal projected performance figure.
  • Suggested Aqu plays 2022
    Let's take another swing at Penn National. Back to Aqu tomorrow

    Total wagered- $28
    Total Collected- $68.40
    Profit/Loss- +40.40
    Flat bet P/L= +40.40

    Race 6- Pit Stop Money $4 win
  • 2022 Race Of The Day Thread
    Good job Conley!!
  • 2022 Race Of The Day Thread
    Good idea Conley!!
    This is a fairly competitive race. If you watch the replay of Studio B's last race it's hard to believe he wasn't posted as the winner. I've watched 1000's of race at Pen and I don't miss many photos but I missed this one. I thought he won by nearly a neck.

    My selection here is 2 Zertz at anywhere near the 7-2 M/L. Sure could see the 3 or 6 beating him but I believe he's set for a huge race. Maybe consider singling him with 7 Wicked Solution in race 9 in Horizontals
  • Suggested Aqu plays 2022
    Let's take a look at Penn National tonight!!

    Last wager= -$8
    Total wagered- $20
    Total Collected- $46
    Profit/Loss- +26
    Flat bet P/L= +26

    Race 1 at Pen- Nimitz Class $8 win
  • Suggested Aqu plays 2022

    Hey Ranch- my money management methodology is built around the session concept that I learned from Dave years ago. I utilize a very conservative 5% session meaning the of my entire gambling BR I keep 5% active at any time. I play with that 5% until I lose it or I double it.
    While playing in a session I 'raise' the number of units I bet per race after a series of loses, thus the progression part of the wagering. But I raise the number of units wagered slowly. For example, if I would lose 3 units in a race I would not necessarily increase my bet size on the next wager. I don't double down after a lose. I put together a fairly simple (and common sense to me) algorythm in the 1990's that I still use to me. Thus the term 'slow' progression. It'd like 2am so I'm a little blurry eyed. Please let me know if you'd like me to clarify in any ways.
  • Suggested Aqu plays 2022

    Thanks Bill- we'll do this exercise through at least the end of Aqu. Hopefully we can demonstrate:
    1) Racing can be profitable
    2) My slow progression wagering plan outperforms flat bet wagering.
    Let's enjoy the ride
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Vulnerable M/L fav update through 1-2-22.
    Attachment
    Vulnerable favs (12K)