Comments

  • 2022 Race Of The Day Thread
    I would have to go with #2 Zertz
    Set a new pace top off a long layoff which is a powerful form cycle pattern. Should be more compressed here with energy and show improved late run.
  • Handicapping aids
    That is Benny Southstreet's product. Follow his Twitter here: @BSouthstreet

    He's sharp when it comes to trips as the program comments almost never tell the true story. Not of much use to the casual capper but is great info to supplement your normal capping if you're diving deep into a card.

    It's a nice GUI and all but I really would prefer a format where I can see notes for all horses in the race on one screen rather than runner-by-runner.
  • College Bowls 2021 Thread
    Oh I was thinking horses, forgot this was a football thread. The sports apps are much better than horses at blocking spoofing so likely no help.
  • College Bowls 2021 Thread


    If the track has mBet app it's super easy to fake your location, possibly works with others :wink:
  • College Bowls 2021 Thread
    Also, here's a tidbit.

    Since 1980, underdogs have won 23% of regular season games but 36% of bowl games.
  • College Bowls 2021 Thread
    Bowl Pick em contest attached for anyone interested. I'm not sure what the estimated pool will be right now. Just sent out to all my different friend groups.
    Attachment
    2021-Bowl-PickEm (599K)
  • I appreciate the tone of this forum.


    There's some really great posters on PA but I think the problem is that often when there is useful content, there's too many that chime in trying to derail the thread rather than contribute...and when it gets messy the contributors just move on.
  • I appreciate the tone of this forum.


    Just need a few boundaries. LOLDave Schwartz

    Haha yep that's where I was going with that.
  • I appreciate the tone of this forum.
    I urge you to INVITE people. But make sure that they understand the success depends upon them actually posting.Dave Schwartz

    Dave forgot to add "but be careful who you invite from PaceAdvantage"...lol :)
  • Buy or sell open sports tickets
    Essentially like the "Cash Out" option all the major sportsbooks offer these days except it's an open market. Really interesting. Sounds like it would be tough to implement though. I think you'd need integration from the tote the ticket belongs to right?
  • Any fantasy football fans out there?
    Yea, play with a couple different friend groups every year.

    There's probably a lot of teams out there that no longer have anyone on their roster that they originally drafted, lol.
  • Craps
    I had a friend I took to play craps once. He would take his time "setting the die" then just before rolling mix them up vigorously and throw. I kept laughing and making fun of him because the mixing makes the whole setting the die irrelevant. Well, of course beginner's luck kicked in and he proceeded to hit the Small-Tall-All Bonus on his very first craps roll winning everyone who was in on that bet 246 to 1. Everyone at the table told me to shut up and leave him alone after that. Absolutely unreal, lol.
  • HorseStreet Forum Going Live
    My opinion is you reach this status with 100 likes rather than posts+replies.

    This promotes productive threads rather than just a race to post whatever 100 times.
  • Sports Question: Which career record will be hardest to break?
    Cal Ripken Jr
    16 years without missing a game.
  • Turn Times


    Ok, I got you...so it's a little bit of manual estimation to get your actual turn times. That makes sense, was just making sure there wasn't some awesome set of turn data out there I wasn't aware of.
  • Turn Times


    Jim, I've considered playing around with turn times before but it seems to me the reported 2F, 4F, etc splits available fall into different spots on the track for different tracks. What are you using to figure the actual turn time around the turn?

    Also, My 2 cents on the concept of inside runners vs outside runners in the turn is a much more difficult question to assess. Many have done the math to simply state that every path out from the rail a horse is, it costs them one length. However, I don't think ground loss can be this easily assumed to be a disadvantage.

    From an energy distribution view, the inside horse is having to negotiate more centrifugal inertia while also sometimes on a flatter portion of the track while the outside horse may be on a more banked surface without fighting those centrifugal forces of circling a tighter turn. In the end, I think ground loss vs centrifugal forces can often cancel each other out in a general sense and it really just comes down to a case by case basis on the actual horse, track configuration, pace scenario, etc.
  • Clocker Reports
    Note to add:
    Marche Lorraine in the Distaff was an example of how clocker reports can mislead you in the wrong direction and a good example of what I labelled a "flowchart comment."

    Her notes were..."on the wrong lead, no gallop out, C+"

    So if you're skimming through and read that it looks like an automatic toss-out. Problem is there's a different direction that comment can go. What if the horse WASN'T on the wrong lead? A bad workout doesn't mean a bad race day.

    Only throw horses based on a workout report if the comment is completely objective to being negative to their condition.
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites


    That's good to hear Tony, that's the idea. Would be helpful to choose horizontal sequences to study further if we could reliably draw a line through certain contenders right off the bat. I don't want to muddy this thread with daily updates on something theoretical but I will keep up on it and post the Excel file weekly or so to see if we can find a nice DTOP angle for eliminating short prices. What I can say is that on Day 1 none of the post-time favs were winners so promising start.
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites

    Well, the idea of the DTOP itself is that something has just been taken out of the horse and regression is expected. By tracking all of them, I hope to either confirm or expel a few different theories:

    Layoff
    Premise: When a horse puts out a peak performance, they need healing time before they can run back without a regression.
    Test: Do we see higher regression rates off DTOPs for horses racing back quicker than those coming off an acceptable layoff (60 days perhaps?)

    Sex
    Premise: I’ve read that in general males have stronger group herd dynamics and weaker individual herd dynamics and females vice versa. Meaning a male horse will over-exert itself to beat the herd but a female will contain herself more to preventing tiring/injury.
    Test: Do female runners break through DTOPs more often while male runners regress off DTOPs more often?

    Age/Career Races
    Premise: Younger or lightly-raced horses do not yet have a ceiling established so we don’t know where their “true DTOP” lies.
    Test: Do lightly-raced runners break through DTOPs more often than established horses. We should be able to find a defined range where a horse stops being “lightly-raced” and becomes “established.” (4 races perhaps?)

    Perhaps other categories to look at will catch the eye as well.

    From this, I’m hoping we can start to identify “ideal vulnerable favorites” that fit the sweet spot (if there is one) in each category.

    And if it’s starting to look inconclusive after doing it for a while, so be it. I move on to something else.
  • Today's Vulnerable Favorites
    Ok now that BC is over I can start tracking on my original post about DTOPs.

    One other thought is that it seems the true goal should be to find vulnerable post-time favorites rather than morning line favorites. After all, the track handicapper's opinion means nothing in regard to our pursuit to beat the public's opinion which solely decides payout.

    So with that said, I'll track all DTOPs daily then only take post-time favorites into consideration for result tracking.

    I have 30 DTOPs on Wednesday but for the sake of this thread, here's the actual morning line favorites of them:
    11/10
    CD6 #4 Vidal 5/2
    CD8 #5 Front Street 7/5
    IND5 #2 Rooster Run 9/5